Why do weathermen get the weather wrong

While Lorenz expected to get a close approximation to his results, the answer turned out to be quite different. In his paper "Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow" considered the start of chaos theory , the scientist concluded that a small change in the initial conditions can drastically change the long-term behavior of a meteorological system. Based on his results, Lorenz stated it is impossible to predict the weather accurately.

In the years since his study, of course, supercomputers and other technological advances have changed that impossibility to a possibility. One of the major elements of a forecast is the chance of precipitation. After all, people want to know if they need to take an umbrella to work or if they might have to shovel their car out of the snow.

Probability P equals the forecaster's confidence C that precipitation will occur times the area A expected to get the precipitation. The first numerical, physics-based computer models were introduced into the arena of weather forecasting in the s.

As supercomputers have grown more powerful and the ways of collecting and processing weather-related data have gotten more varied, the accuracy of forecasts has improved. The rate of improvement has been calculated at about one day per decade. To put it another way: a six-day forecast in would have been as accurate as a five-day forecast was back in Supercomputers have been involved in weather forecasting since the midth century.

In the US, the National Weather Service has supercomputers that process nearly all of the observational weather data the organization collects. According to the NWS, the last major computer update came in - the combined processing power of the units is 8. In the UK, meanwhile, Microsoft and Met Office have teamed up to build the most powerful supercomputer to forecast weather and climate change.

It's expected to be operational in The British government provided 1. However, this rate has started to slow in recent years, which means that other approaches - like increasing the computational efficiency of the predictive models - may be necessary to continue making progress in terms of more accurate weather forecasting. Despite all the technological advances in these computers, they aren't always accurate. The chaotic nature of weather means that as long as forecasters have to make assumptions about the processes taking place in the atmosphere, a chance will always exist for any computer to include errors, regardless of how powerful or fast the computer may be.

Weather stations are one way forecasters collect data to help them make predictions. But the location of the stations can affect just how accurate the data is. These stations tend to be more plentiful in and around cities than in less populated areas. Meteorologists use computer programs called weather models to make forecasts. The atmosphere is changing all the time, so those estimates are less reliable the further you get into the future.

A seven-day forecast is fairly accurate, but forecasts beyond that range are less reliable. Some of the information needed to make a weather forecast comes from environmental satellites.

This means they can collect near-continuous images over the same area. Because they focus on one spot, they can provide up-to-the-minute information about severe weather. This information helps forecasters understand how quickly a storm, such as a hurricane, is growing and moving. Credit: NOAA. They zip around our planet from pole to pole 14 times per day. I watched a weather forecaster yesterday who had her raincoat cinched around her face attempting to protect herself from the elements and describing the horrible conditions in the area while the cameraman accidentally picked up a family with T-shirts and shorts walking in the background on the beach.

It once ridiculous that she seem to feel so safe 20 feet away on the other side of the street but not on the side for the awning had fallen. Who could have respect for this type of forecasting. I would love to visit the drama training class where they prepare these people to hype up the weather on TV. It just seems beyond ridiculous. Do they understand how this affects families income when they scare the public unnecessarily and businesses close for days?

I see exactly what you and it is infuriating. Case in point: Hurricane Florence. All we heard about from their meteorology team and that of WRAL is that this is a life-threatening storm which will down you, knock trees on you, steal money from your bank account, eat your firstborn, and give you a bad haircut.

After a series of subsequent stupid bad decisions that my husband made related to the storm because he wanted to listen to his friends instead of his wife still currently pissed off at him?

I decided to sit down and do some research. First, I reached out to friends and family members who had not evacuated to find out what the weather was really doing back home and they all said that it was drizzling on and off but life was carrying on like normal. Several websites said that metrologist practically have a professional oath to hone in their imner actor when delivering the news to keep viewers tuned in so they can make money on the sponsors.

The question is where do I get the truth about the weather? Sometimes people do need to evacuate an area when extreme weather is expected like those living on the coast of NC and SC, head to the basement for tornados, or grab the survival kit which actually is a good idea to have anyway , but is it possible that most times we just need to keep trees away from the home, avoid living in flood zones, and stay indoors?

How can I get the truth about the weather forecast without all of the Weather Channel hype? How am I supposed to make informed decisions about steps I need to take if every event is the world War III of weather? Weather is not the only thing that is being hyped.

Our society is thriving on extremes. We appear to be addicted to making everything the ultimate experience. In NY this weekend we ate getting snowstorm pretty much like we always do in winter. Governor is banning semis on TWAY, shutting down Amtrak service urging people to prepare, stay home and stay off roads. Churches are canceling services! And more… Snowfall events of inches have been regular events for last 50 years. But now, a 6 to 12 inch event is billed as a major problem.

I agree with all of you. Will we all die? Stay tuned. If we had the risk of actually dying, why are you waiting 10 minutes to let me know? Most of the time I turn off the tv, turn off my alerts and look out the window. Completely agree. Local news station meteorologists turn on the hype for money from sponsors and ratings. When they scare everyone into constantly checking the weather on their channel or web site, they cash in in the long run. Seriously, where can we get the truth about anything anymore?

I am interested in a new idea of membership-based news so that the news is completely free of influence from sponsors. Just a little bit more brain washing …. Although founded in by reknowned meteorologists, the weather channel has been bought out repeatedly by entertainment conglomerates.

Established and respected meteorologists have been replaced with mostly semi-literate camera fodder, cleavage and embarrassing acting. The storm was much too far away when the hysteria started for anybody to know where or when it would actually hit the USA, or even if it would ever hit the USA at all!

Virtually all weather-related activity now serves as fodder for proselyting by the church of the Great Green Hoax! And of course they propose a solution that is always the same regardless of whether it is snow and ice, drought, or hurricanes: more taxes and regulations, less freedom. But they are already over hyping the amount of snow.

All 4 snow falls have been at the very bottom of the range of snow predicted. Then this past Thursday they predicted inches of snow Sunday afternoon. Well it turned out the the low temperature for the day was 33 degrees, which meant all we got was rain. In fact the snow that was on the ground, pretty much all melted. In other words: if you want a perfect forecast for tomorrow, the results will not process until the day after, which is too late by that point.

Moreover, there are about three to five main computer forecast models also called guidance that meteorologists use to help forecast the weather. Some days the models all suggest the same result. On other days, each model has a different outcome. Some models do better than others, but all have pitfalls and bad days.

Back to the subject at hand: meteorologists are always wrong, correct? His average:. In football - so far this season - Russell Wilson of the Seahawks has the best quarterback completion percentage: He completed about three out of four passes. And in basketball, the best 3-point shooter this season missed more than half of his shots.

When it comes to weather, in general, the accuracy rate for a hour forecast is about 95 percent. For a three-day forecast: about 86 percent. And for a five-day forecast: about 75 percent. So, comparing that to baseball, football, and basketball, the accuracy of a meteorologist is much better! Here is a perfect example of how predicting the future is never easy: when was the last time you nailed the entire NCAA March Madness bracket?

How about just the Sweet 16?